Tuesday, June 7, 2011

The Rise of the Automobile

Car of the Future - Electric Powered
America's enduring love of the automobile has shaped real estate perhaps more than any single factor when combined with the interstate highway system.  The auto industry has been America's sweetheart since Henry Ford's first Model-T rolled off the assembly line in 1908.  Ten thousand Model-T's were sold the first year.  48 years later, in 1956, President Eisenhower passed the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act and American life and real estate in America was changed forever.  The ambitious goal was to build 41,000 miles of highway over 20 years.  $25B, a tidy sum for the day, was set aside to accomplish this grand endeavor.  The result: automobiles gave rise to mobility and the new freeways made it possible for Americans to hit the open road.  And they did so en masse.  In 1929, there were 23M cars on the road.  By 1960, there were more than 74M cars on the road, a 222% increase in 31 years.  Today, there are 250M registered vehicles in America -- that's incredible!  As a result of this increase in automobiles across the US, the real estate landscape has changed dramatically.  For better or worse, autos have had a major impact on American culture, including real estate. 

The result: America witnessed the birth of:

Shopping Centers/Malls
Original Tract Home Subdivision
Levittown, USA
Suburban Housing Developments                                             
Fuel Stations
Overnight Lodging
Road Trip Vacation

America also witnessed the death of:

Many Small Towns
Mass Transit in Some Areas
Certain Aspects of Community                                       
Certain Types of Industry

Classic Corvette - My Favorite Classic Car
Maybe one day!
Over time, real estate has evolved to accommodate the needs of a much more mobile culture.  Whether we can or want to stem the tide of the automobile culture in America is an interesting question.  Automobiles in America are not only a sense of pride but also provide a great sense of freedom, both real and perceived.  People are able to go where they want when they want.  Changing this mindset, especially where there has been a historical absence of mass transit will be difficult.  Of course, the cost of fuel will always be a factor, but electric cars and natural gas powered cars over mass transit options may provide the alternative that Americans embrace.  The other alternative is that gas prices will not rise as much as people anticipate and the status quo will continue.  Regardless of what the future holds, the enduring automobile culture that has become a pervasive part of the American fabric.  It is woven into every aspect of American life. 

Other topics and trends we discussed in class were:

Technology's Impact on Real Estate - if it has not already, technology will ultimately eclipse the automobile in terms of its overall impact on real estate
Mass Transit Options Such As High Speed Rail - it would be awesome to have the US states linked together through a network of high speed rail lines - European and Asian countries are the leaders in high speed rail
Unique Commercial Properties - looked at the very strange underground commercial property called Subtropolis - someone should make a movie with this as its setting

Nissan Leaf - 100% Electric
There are many cultural factors that influence real estate and vice-versa.  It will be interesting to see if America's fascination for and love affair with cars, one aspect of our culture, can coexist with America's need to move in a more sustainable direction which could include a world with electric and hybrid cars, toll roads, TODs, urban revitalization, light rail, or even high speed rail. Pros and cons will accompany any changes that take place in the US, and the real estate industry, although somewhat slow to respond to change, will seek to accommodate the demands of current and future consumers. 



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